Pandemic Pandemonium Sometimes it's no fun being right Months ago, I warned about the possibility (more correctly, the likelihood) of a pandemic influenza outbreak based on the H5N1 "bird flu" virus that's currently terrorizing Eastern Asia. Hoping I was wrong at the time, I predicted a worldwide killer virus rivaling the 1918 Spanish Flu outbreak that killed tens of millions... Looks like I'm likely right, much to my dismay. According to a nightmare scenario predicted by the World Health Organization's Asian communicable disease expert (the same doctor who was on the front lines of the fight against SARS a few years back), if one VERY LIKELY condition occurs, the world would have no more than a few precious weeks to contain the deadly H5N1 before it kills millions. That condition: The successful mutation of H5N1 into a related virus capable of human-to-human transmission. Currently, the deadly Avian flu - which has killed more than 60 people in 4 different countries so far - is thought to be passed to humans only from infected animals like pigs, ducks and other fowl. If history has shown us anything, it's that such mutations DO occur, and with frightening regularity. And among the more frightening of the assertions this SARS-hardened WHO expert put forth in his new report are these: - Containment of a pandemic version of H5N1 may be impossible because symptoms of infection in humans may not be detectable before the virus becomes communicable
- It takes up to 6 months to develop a vaccine to any influenza virus - H5N1 can likely mutate into newer, vaccine-proof forms faster than this
- The early versions of any vaccine are unlikely to protect against the specific strain of virus that would likely cause a pandemic
Beyond this, the veteran disease fighter characterized SARS as an "easy virus to contain" compared to H5N1, should it successfully mutate. Scary huh? What's even scarier is that the pandemic may ALREADY HAVE STARTED. Keep reading... **************************************************** Beginning of the end? Just days ago, health experts in tsunami-ravaged Indonesia called an outbreak of the H5N1 Avian Flu in the country's capital of Jakarta (one of the world's most populous cities at 12 million denizens, by the way) an "Epidemic." And according to a recent Reuters piece, at around the same time, the Indonesian government imposed a state of high alert - which gives local officials the authority to force a quarantine of those showing possible symptoms of the virus. Sounds like they're gearing up for battle against the killer... With what the WHO characterizes as the most vulnerable period for viral spread in that part of the world - December, January, and February, like here in the U.S. - just ahead, we may know sooner than we want to whether H5N1 will be the next Spanish Flu or not. As part of the preparations, Indonesia has obtained 1000 doses of Tamiflu (an antiviral drug that purportedly helps curb flu infection rates) for neighboring India. In total, they have around 10,000 doses stockpiled... In other words, 1 for ever 1,200 people in its capital city alone. Yeah, that'll help. Keep your ears open on this one, folks. If this thing turns into what I fear it could, the Daily Dose won't be the only place you'll be getting the scoop. More prevalent sources might be the Centers for Disease Control - or the National Guard. But...do you trust them? Would FEMA be called in? Might that not be the kiss of death? Praying that I'm NOT a prophet, William Campbell Douglass II, MD | 
